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Buying a private island & prices are now higher than last year

June 9, 2026 By Ryan Lundquist 1 Comment

A private island listed for sale last week in the local market, and it’s getting viral attention, so let’s talk about it. Also, price metrics are now HIGHER than one year ago. What does that mean? Has the housing market started to rebound? Are we so back? Let’s get into it.

UPCOMING SPEAKING GIGS:

6/24/26 Windermere Sierra Oaks Q&A
7/1/26 Wisdom Wednesday in Elk Grove
7/13/26 LPT Realty Zoom
7/14/26 Elk Grove Presentation TBD
7/15/26 Stockton Presentation TBD
8/6/26 PCAR Auburn
9/1/26 ROG Talks
10/2/26 PCAR Rocklin
10/21/26 Coldwell Banker Sierra Oaks / EDH

TOP 10 REASONS TO BUY AN ISLAND

Bragging rights. “Bro, I own an island.”
Throw a big party (Sacramento Fyre Festival).
Finally, you have privacy.
Become an Instagram island influencer.
Open a drive-through coffee shop for boats.
Move far away from any HOA.
Use the parcel to film season nine of Love Island.
Helicopter landing pad.
Create a vacation destination with Airbnb potential.
Buy and rename the island after your business.

MY ANKLE INJURY

By the way, I injured my ankle last week. I don’t think it’s broken, but if you see me hobbling, it’s from a skateboarding mishap. Here’s a video in case you want to see the moment it happened. Haha.

HERE’S WHAT THE ISLAND LOOKS LIKE

This parcel is located along the California Delta at 13301 W Eight Mile Rd (Stockton, CA), and it’s 5.6 acres in size according to public records. Do you see any potential here? What would you want to do with it?

Q&A WITH THE LISTING AGENT

I asked Monte Morris a few questions via text message about his island listing, and here’s what he had to say:

Ryan: This property has gone viral over the past week. What’s it been like to manage that?

Monte: I called news outlets, and asked them to write articles. Those conversations were with SacBee, SF Gate, and the New York Post’s California arm. As soon as those were published, my phone just started blowing up. This is the third island that I’ve listed, and other news outlets have jumped on board and written their own articles. It’s almost been too much! My phone has been ringing so much that while I’m talking with someone and answering questions, I miss five or six other calls so I can’t keep up with all of it.

Ryan: What advice would you give to anyone wanting to buy an island?

Monte: I would say act fast and do your due diligence. The local authorities are the ones to ask for your specific intended use. This part can be a little frustrating because these agencies don’t move very fast.

Ryan: What type of interest has there been in this one? Who has been interested?

Monte: I’ve had everything from marijuana grows, commercial rentals, marinas, residential, lots of hunting clubs, and everything else you can imagine. You just have to call the appropriate authority like fishing game, planning, or Building, etc.

CLOSING THOUGHTS:

I think Monte is 100% correct about understanding what you can do with the land, and this rings true whether we’re talking about an island or any parcel. Value hinges on what zoning allows (or will allow maybe). Bottom line. I would recommend not relying on the listed zoning in Tax Records either, which is AG-40. This one little zoning description in Realist may or may not be correct, so get on the phone with the planning / building department and start asking questions to verify zoning and what is possible. If you’re thinking about value, you can try to find some other comps because interesting stuff like this does sell from time to time, but this is a cash purchase, so at the end of the day, ask yourself how much it’s worth to you personally too.

ARE PRICES REALLY UP FROM ONE YEAR AGO?

Yes, they are. Technically. But the comparison today is starting to get weird because the market peaked early last year, and we’re now starting to compare today’s stats with a dull market in 2025. Ultimately, I wouldn’t get too hyped over this. This is only one month of data, and so much of the price reading comes down to what the market was doing last year, which was peaking early. But don’t get me wrong. Like I talked about in recent weeks, price change has been compressing. What I mean is prices have not been growing more negative lately.

LOOK BEYOND JUST THE MEDIAN AND AVERAGE

I’ll report on other price indexes from Zillow and Freddie Mac as soon as they become available, and my guess is they’re not going to be up for May, but they won’t likely be down by much either.

SERIOUSLY, LET’S UNDERSTAND THE COMPARISON

Do you see how the green line (2026) ticked up from April to May? That’s not uncommon to see at this time of year as other lines show. But last year in 2025, the blue line went down earlier than expected. So, we’re starting to compare a more normal trend this year with an early peak last year. And this makes a difference in the stats. Many people aren’t going to understand this, but those who watch closely will sound like badass experts. It’s going to be interesting to watch this line in coming months too.

YEAR-OVER-YEAR RECAP IMAGES:

Enjoy recap stats for twelve counties. Please take smaller counties with a grain of salt. Stats can bounce around all over the place, so don’t be rigid about the change from month to month. In fact, I think I’m going to switch some of the smaller areas to quarterly by next month because they’re too chaotic (Nevada, Yuba, Sutter, etc…).

RECAP DESCRIPTION:

In most areas, we’re starting to see price metrics are slightly higher than one year ago, and the housing market has been a little more competitive too. Closed sales volume is pretty flat compared to last year, and most areas showed more homes selling above the original list price. In coming months, I expect the stats today will be more competitive as the market got pretty dull last summer. So, be ready for those comparisons. The number of active listings has shrunk a bit in most counties lately, and that’s due to slightly stronger pending volume and sellers starting to back off the market too. Anyway, I’ll keep talking about the market on my socials every day, so let’s keep the conversation going.

Anyway, I hope that was helpful. Thanks for being here.

Question: Would you ever buy a private island? What do you think of the island above? And anything else to add about price stats right now?

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Shrinking housing supply & stop obsessing over rates

June 3, 2026 By Ryan Lundquist 2 Comments

The big news lately is housing supply has been shrinking. Some of this is due to more buyers in the game right now, but we’re also seeing sellers step back from listing homes. Some new visuals today as well as thoughts on wasting energy on obsessing over lower rates.

This post is designed to skim quickly by topic or digest slowly.

UPCOMING SPEAKING GIGS:

6/24/26 Windermere Sierra Oaks Q&A
7/1/26 Wisdom Wednesday in Elk Grove
7/13/26 LPT Realty Zoom
7/14/26 Elk Grove Presentation TBD
7/15/26 Stockton Presentation TBD
8/6/26 PCAR Auburn
9/1/26 TBA
10/2/26 PCAR Rocklin
10/21/26 Coldwell Banker Sierra Oaks / EDH

THE LOWEST & HIGHEST PRICES IN 2026

Where are buyers purchasing? Here are the top areas in 2026 so far at the lowest and highest prices in the Sacramento region. Let me know if you like these visuals. I thought it would be cool to show things this way.

SELLERS HAVE BEEN SHRINKING BACK LATELY

This is big news. It looks like increased uncertainty this year is starting to affect seller behavior. Think Iran War and inflation. What I mean is sellers have started to not list homes as much in 2026. This was a problem last year where sellers really stepped back during the second half of 2025. Yet, sellers started coming back to the market, and that’s why we saw five months in a row of finally being back above 2024 levels of new listings. But then May 2026 sunk back below 2024 levels again (doh!!!). This isn’t a drastic change, but I think it’s been enough to make the housing market feel a little tighter since there isn’t as much supply out there. Frankly, this is a step in the wrong direction for affordability. If we want the housing market to heal, we need more listings.

Here’s a different way to look at it. The low point of seller activity was 2023, and we’ve improved since then, but sellers backed off in mid-2025, and both April and May 2026 have been lackluster. The longer these lines remain subdued, the longer the housing market feels stuck.

GIVING UP LOW RATES

It feels like sellers will never give up a low rate, and some won’t, but we’re starting to see more owners list their homes despite a low rate. About 15% of all current local listings have sold previously on MLS between 2020 and 2025, and there are definitely some low rates mixed in there.

NOT AS MANY OPTIONS FOR BUYERS

Sellers aren’t flooding the market. That’s often the narrative online, but here we are with sellers actually pulling back a little. The number of active listings is down 6% from year ago, so there aren’t technically as many options for buyers. Yet, part of this number being lower is about more buyers getting into contract (more on that below).

HIGHER BUYER DEMAND DESPITE RATE HIKES

Some good news here. Mortgage rates went from 6% in January to above 6.5% lately, but it hasn’t really phased buyers. I’m not saying this uptick is not meaningful, but we’ve had more pending contracts in recent months despite rates rising. This is why we’ve had slightly higher closed sales volume so far. It’s only slightly more volume, but that’s on brand for 2026. The goal is to see the housing market a little less stuck.

WASTING TIME & ENERGY ON RATES

Think about all the attention spent on rates increasing since January and how that could squash buyer demand. Yet, here we are with a little more buyer volume nationally and locally despite the uptick. I’m not saying rates don’t matter because they do, but if you work in real estate, maybe focus your attention on building relationships with people rather than obsessing over daily rate changes. Backing up, the message over the past four years has been that rates would be coming down soon. Trust me bro. But here we are with rates that are still pretty similar to what they were four years ago. At some point, I guess we need to recognize all this worry and attention spent on rates hasn’t made much of a difference. There is a lesson in there.

One more thing. It’s really difficult to accurately predict mortgage rates. Almost nobody gets it right. This doesn’t mean I don’t want to hear what people think. Loan officer friends in particular, I want to hear your take, so please keep sharing. Let’s just concede that predicting rates isn’t so easy since there are so many moving parts. And let’s be real that some real estate professionals get sucked into a narrative that fixates on rates, and that can be limiting.

A LITTLE MORE DISTRESS IS THE VIBE

In most local counties, I’m seeing a slight bump in short sales. Here’s something from a presentation last week in Solano County. Ultimately, we don’t have a distressed housing market, but we are seeing a little more distress. And we should expect to see more distress ahead since we’ve bottomed out after the pandemic and we’re seeing an increase in mortgage delinquencies. A big issue here is prices have been pretty flat for years, so if someone bought 4-5 years ago, it’s possible there hasn’t been much growth (or maybe it’s worth less). This is where low-down FHA and VA borrowers are more prone to have to do a short sale.

NOTE: I find people either minimize the growth since it’s nothing compared to what it used to be like, or they get sensational and say short sales increased 900% since 2024 (don’t do that). My advice? Let’s just recognize a little growth and keep things in context.

“I’M NOT SEEING THE EXTRA VOLUME AT ALL”

I had a great conversation recently from someone who said she just wasn’t seeing all this extra volume I’ve been talking about, and others have felt the same too. Well, I’ve only ever mentioned that we have a little extra, so let’s be clear about that. To date, volume has been 2% better this year. Here’s a good way to think about it. If someone gained or lost 2% of their weight, would you notice? Probably not. It’s similar with the housing market. Yet, just because you don’t notice doesn’t mean it hasn’t happened. This is where we want to be careful to see the forest through the trees. Sometimes our subjective experience gets in the way of seeing the trend.

WHERE IS THE EXTRA VOLUME?

We’ve seen about 2% more closed sales volume this year in the four-county region, and Sacramento County has been the culprit for the most change so far. Moreover, it’s extra buyers between $400K to $500K as the largest category of growth. It’s honestly too early to pull closed stats for May, and the numbers will look a little better next week when I finalize the stats.

More at the bottom. And a little more at the top. Preliminary stats for May.

Anyway, I hope that was helpful. Thanks for being here.

Question: What are you hearing from buyers and sellers right now? Have you felt the market tighten in recent months?

If you liked this post, subscribe by email (or RSS). Thanks for being here.

Unsolicited advice about making it in real estate in 2026

May 28, 2026 By Ryan Lundquist 18 Comments

Real estate is easy money. It looks simple and glamorous on Selling Sunset, but this is a very tough business. And the past four years have been a huge grind ever since rates spiked and buyers disappeared from the market. Well, today I’m taking a break from stats. I have some encouragement about making it in today’s housing market. Let me know what you think.

UPCOMING SPEAKING GIGS:

6/24/26 Windermere Sierra Oaks Q&A
7/1/26 Wisdom Wednesday in Elk Grove
7/13/26 LPT Realty Zoom
7/14/26 Elk Grove Presentation TBD
7/15/26 Stockton Presentation TBD
8/6/26 PCAR Auburn
9/1/26 TBA
10/2/26 PCAR Rocklin
10/21/26 Coldwell Banker Sierra Oaks / EDH

UNSOLICITED ADVICE ABOUT MAKING IT IN 2026

Here are some things on my mind. This is the type of stuff I think about constantly. I’m all about sharing the straight dope with the stats, but there is also hope and optimism to embrace.

1) HONE YOUR MINDSET: The only thing you can control is your mindset, and having the right mindset is not going to happen by accident. It’s something that has to be cultivated. The truth is this market will either force you out or it’ll forge you into the person you need to be. What type of mindset is going to help you win today? And how can you cultivate that? Who are the voices you need to listen to? And who do you need to stop listening to?

2) PLAN FOR A VIBRANT LIFE. NOT A VIBRANT MARKET: We’re going to have lower sales volume for years ahead until there is a sharper change with affordability. Bottom line. This means we need to figure out how to have an awesome life instead of waiting for the market to get better before life gets good. Embrace today. Don’t be like Uncle Rico who was stuck in 1982.

3) INCREASE THE SIZE OF YOUR NETWORK: The most important thing in real estate is relationships with people, and building a bigger network is essential for making it in today’s market. Don’t just wait for the phone to ring. How can you increase the size of your network? What is your plan? Who do you need to get to know? Who do you need to get in front of? What meetings do you need to start attending (or stop attending)? Who are the gatekeepers to the types of work you want to do? And don’t copy others either. Be yourself and figure out what works for you.

4) STOP OBSESSING OVER PRICES: Markets go up and they go down, but many real estate professionals interpret the trend as good when prices are rising and bad when they aren’t. I get it, but the visual below just seems off. Can you imagine having a negative mindset for close to half of your real estate career if you embrace this way of thinking? Does it have to be like this? Instead of looking at prices, consider focusing on people who have incentive to participate regardless of what prices are doing. It’s not that prices don’t matter because they do. All I’m saying is if you catch yourself believing the market is good or bad based on prices, there is room to challenge that belief. Maybe it’s not actually about prices, but rather people finding opportunities in the market.

By the way, Nick Brooks (Realtor) once told me, “The good markets don’t last, and neither do the bad ones.” Killer statement.

5) STOP PUTTING YOUR HOPE IN LOWER RATES: There has been so much hope in rates coming down, but it’s been four years since rates spiked, and they just haven’t changed that much. At some point, I guess we should be realistic. It’s sort of like hearing that a certain sports team is going to have a better year next year, but then they don’t (too real with the Sacramento Kings lately). My advice? Know what’s happening with rates, but put your energy and attention into connecting with people who have incentive to participate in today’s market. Besides, rates would have to come down significantly to make a bigger impact, so it just doesn’t make sense to obsess over them.

6) HAVE MORE FUN IN LIFE: If all we do is focus on work, we end up very empty. So, what are you doing right now for fun? What is adding joy to your life? If there isn’t much, it’s time to start leaning into stuff that makes you feel alive. Look, I don’t have life down, and in so many ways I’m learning to focus on the basics again instead of just work. Here is the Venn diagram of my personal focus this year though. If you made something like this, what would it look like?

7) SPEAK TO BUYERS: The real estate narrative tends to heavily favor sellers, equity, and higher prices, but don’t forget to talk about buyers and opportunities that exist for them. Seriously, there is a pervasive seller-oriented bias in real estate, and I think it’s something to overcome. My advice? Get more intentional about speaking to buyers and be a dispenser of advice for both sellers AND buyers.

8) IDENTIFY OPPORTUNITIES: Identify opportunities by knowing which parts of the market are growing and shrinking. So, if 20% of the market is investors, what does that mean for your business? If we’re seeing the most growth in volume at lower prices, what action steps can you take? If we’re starting to see more short sales, what does that mean for your marketing? If Gen X and Millennials are inheriting homes from aging Boomers, what do you do with that information? If population is growing or shrinking in some areas, how does that influence your focus? If HOA fees keep rising or rents have dipped, who is going to want to sell?

9) RUN TOWARD THE MARKET: The real estate business looks easy from a distance, but in the real world it’s a tough gig. My strong advice is to run toward the challenge of this market instead of getting stuck in discouragement. I find when we stop moving forward, it’s easy to start sinking. I don’t have an easy plan for how to do this, but there is something very powerful about having a mindset that faces the challenge rather than shrinks away. This is likely the one thing that distinguishes success in today’s market.

10) BE FLUENT IN TRENDS: Okay, I have to end on this note because I’m a stats guy. Watch the housing market closely and be fluent in the trends so you can speak definitively about what is happening rather than resting on cliches or imposing a narrative that doesn’t actually fit the local trend. People can smell expertise when you’re talking about specific parts of the market, and I encourage all real estate professionals to put yourself out there. On that note, be a sniper rather than a shotgun with the stats. Don’t bombard people with a dissertation, but instead get focused in your message with small bits of information. I realize this is ironic since my blog posts are long, but the goal is for others to take a nugget here and there from what I do and then share that.

Anyway, I hope that was helpful. Thanks for being here.

Question: What’s the best advice you would give for making it as a real estate professional in today’s market?

If you liked this post, subscribe by email (or RSS). Thanks for being here.

Growing population & slowing price change

May 14, 2026 By Ryan Lundquist 4 Comments

I have some really interesting stuff to share today, and I hope you dig it. Let’s talk about some glowing population stats and price growth that has seemed to flatten lately (sort of). The stats are also going to get awkward as we start comparing today with a really dull market last year.

NOTE: This post is designed to skim by topic or digest slowly

An image with '70s type colors (yellow, red, and orange), and the title of today's blog post. growing california population and slowing price change - sacramento appraisal blog

UPCOMING SPEAKING GIGS:

5/15/26 Nevada County
5/21/26 Jenn Davis-Radcliffe Event (private)
5/27/26 Solano County TBA
7/1/26 Wisdom Wednesday in Elk Grove
8/6/26 PCAR Auburn
10/2/26 PCAR Rocklin
10/21/26 Coldwell Banker Sierra Oaks / EDH

IT’S NOT ALL BAD NEWS FOR CALIFORNIA POPULATION

There is so much attention on people leaving California, but most counties in the wider Sacramento region have been growing according to new stats from the California Department of Finance. I shared this on my socials, and it went viral on IG. People like to hear about population change, though it also brings out conversations about traffic and how hard it is to see things not stay the same, so this isn’t all bliss.

HOUSING STATS ARE BORING RIGHT NOW

Check out how similar April 2026 is to April 2025. Mostly all the metrics are the same, which makes these stats honestly a little boring (not sensational). Yet, this is poised to change over the next few months as we start comparing 2026 with a really dull 2025. This assumes 2026 doesn’t have a sharp inflection point like we saw last year.

Here’s what it looks like as a meme…

PRICE CHANGE IS SLOWER RATHER THAN INTENSE

Some price stats look like they’ve been starting to flatten a little or at least not intensify. This doesn’t mean price declines have stopped or bigger change isn’t possible in the future. It just means change has been slower lately, and we should talk about it to try to make sense of things.

Both the median and Zillow show exactly what I’m saying as year-over-year price change has slowed. Yet, the Freddie Mac Price Index grew in March, so I’m not ready to say we’ve entered a full-on flattening season. I’m simply recognizing some stats have slowed. Ultimately, we need a few months to see how things play out.

One more thing. Uncertainty today has not been an intense as one year ago, but there is still lingering uncertainty about the war, gas prices, and higher inflation. To date, these factors haven’t caused a big inflection point like we saw last year, but it’s something to continue to watch.

CONDO PRICES HAVE CONTINUED TO DROP

Condos are NOT showing the same tame price change as detached units. This is a good reminder that the single-family detached trend can be different from the condo trend.

COMPARISONS ARE GOING TO GET WEIRD

We’re going to start comparing today with a dull market in 2025, and it means we need to be thoughtful about interpreting what the stats mean. Locally, here are some things to watch:

Days on market is poised to be lower than one year ago in coming months (check out the green line compared to blue)
The % of homes selling above will be higher than last year
The % of homes selling below will be lower than last year
We should get more new listings this year than last year unless sellers start to back off more. I’m hoping a slightly weaker showing of new listings in April 2026 isn’t going to turn into a trend.
Its possible buyer volume can be better in coming months as it has through April, but there are so many factors that can affect this.
Price stats seem poised to be closer to last year, but we’ll see.
It’s possible we’ll see a higher number of offers on properties today since competition shrank last year.

All of this will take a few months to start showing up more in the stats for closed sales, and then we’ll see what ends up happening for the rest of the year.

The black lines (2026) will be much closer to the red lines (pre-2020 norm) in coming months. I think it’s possible the next few months will be slightly softer than the norm, but only time will tell.

VOLUME IS HIGHER THAN ONE YEAR AGO

We probably don’t want to write home over 2% more closed sales, but it’s still something to note. This is exactly what we want to see in 2026. A little bit more volume.

IGNORE THE MEDIAN PRICE IN SMALLER AREAS

Here are some images to show how erratic the median sales price can be in smaller counties. My advice? Don’t build your narrative on the median from month to month. You’re going to sound insane if you do. It’s reasonable to look at larger counties for the trend rather than getting too focused on smaller areas that bounce around so much more.

YEAR-OVER-YEAR RECAP IMAGES

Enjoy recap stats for twelve counties. I’m considering making month-to-month visuals again, but I’m still in test-drive mode for these ones. Please take smaller counties with a grain of salt. Stats can bounce around all over the place, so don’t be rigid about the change from month to month.